For All Nails #40: That All the World Should be Counted
Press Release from MacMillan Publishing, New York
15 January 1973
We are pleased to announce a second printing of Robert
Sobel's acclaimed dual history of the CNA and USM, _For
Want of a Nail_. This new printing corrects a number of
errors in the political results and population figures in
the original printing, introduced during the editing process
and no fault of Professor Sobel ...
From the 1973 _Herald Almanac_:
CNA Population by States, 1930-1970:
State OTL 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Seats
NC 36.2 43.5 47.8 52.4 57.5 62.9 35
SC 23.2 35.7 42.1 49.7 58.6 69.1 39
IN 25.1 32.1 35.9 40.2 45.0 50.4 30
SV 10.8 13.9 15.3 16.8 18.5 20.3 15
NV 7.3 11.3 12.4 13.6 15.0 16.5 13
MB 4.0 16.1 17.7 19.5 21.4 25.8 18
CNA 106.6 153.6 172.4 193.7 217.8 245.0 150
Results of the 1968 CNA National Election 
State Seats PC (Monaghan) Lib (Winters) PJP (Volk)
NC 35 16 10 9
SC 39 22 15 2
IN 30 13 15 2
SV 15 8 6 1
NV 13 8 4 1
MB 18 13 4 2
Total 150 80 53 17
Partial Transcript of Vitavision Interview on
Confederation Public Affairs Network (C-PAN),
15 January 1973. Moderator (and C-PAN President) Brian
Agnello speaks with Paul Markey, a political consultant
from Burlington, NY, NC.
A: So. To sum up the overall picture, then?
M: If the election were held today, and there was no change
in relative turnout of different groups from 1968, the
Governor-General would increase his majority by five to ten
seats, with the PJP taking about twenty.
A: It's in the bag for him?
M: You can't say that, of course. Any sudden event that swings
as much as four percent away from the PC wipes out the gain.
A swing of eight or ten and Monaghan loses his majority.
A: And what happens then?
M: The _bazaar_ opens, I would guess. The PJP would have the
balance of power, in theory, but they're so far from the other
two parties on military and foreign policy they could only bargain
on domestic. They'd demand a wholesale sacking of the leadership
of the CBI, for starters, and probably a criminal investigation of
this overhearing business . To forestall that, I'd expect the
other two parties to consider a coalition. Either that, or a few
Liberals would vote to re-elect Monaghan in exchange for specific
A: You're saying the Liberal total could be as low as forty seats.
Wouldn't that be a disaster for Governor Skinner?
M: Not necessarily. After last time there was serious doubt as to whether
the Liberals could remain the chief opposition party after the split.
That's no longer in doubt. The PJP has recast itself as a major regional
party -- they may well get shut out outside of Manitoba and the NC, but
they're not the national opposition Mason and Volk envisioned. The next
non-PC government of this country will be Liberal, or a Liberal-led
coalition. The Liberals will gain seats in the SC, which is the state
that is growing fastest in overall population, and they have a strong
leader from there. If you look deeper than the total-seat numbers, as
well, the Liberals will run second in most of the PC seats. Any swing
away from the PC next time largely benefits them. I think Governor
Skinner would be happier than you'd think with forty seats, much less
A: You were mentioning electoral alliances before...
M: Yes -- the Governor-General has been lucky that his opponents haven't
been able to take full advantage of tactical alliances. In my own
province of New York, for example, an agreement was worked out between
the PJP and the Liberals so that in several ridings there's only one
candidate. That's going to cost the PC four, maybe five seats. The
same deal in Indiana could have cost them _ten_, which would make the
majority really problematic.
A: Your firm, Markey Research. You use calculating machines.
M: Yes, we do. _Combined with_ well-designed voter surveys and
detailed knowledge of local trends, they're tremendously useful.
There's simply a whole lot of arithmetic to be done, and the machines
we've obtained from General Computing can do incredible amounts of
arithmetic very quickly. And that can start to help you to look at
the information in new ways --
A: Like what?
M: Well, take the effect of race on voting patterns. Frank Rusk, one
of the smartest guys in the business, wrote that in 1968 race was
gone as a factor in CNA politics, along with region. Well, how could
a smart guy like that say something so stupid?
A: Is it so stupid? Monaghan's approval ratings are pretty much the same
for whites and Negros.
M: Yes, but when you look deeper, that similarity is really the net
cancellation of a lot of differences. Look, Negros in SV are still
small farmers to a large extent -- natural Liberal voters. Both the
Negro farmer in SV and the white farmer in NV tell you that they like
Monaghan but wish he'd protect their markets. But the Negro, and not
the white man, goes and votes for the PC candidate. Take New York and
Brooklyn City, pretty much the same in income, employment, what have you.
New York has a more Negro population, a Negro mayor, and votes PC.
Brooklyn has fewer Negros, a solid core of more radical voters,
a woman mayor, and votes PJP. If you know how, with one of these
calculating machines you can take bigger surveys, break the results into
more categories, and potentially spot smaller trends. You'll be seeing
a lot more of them around, and not just in politics.
A: Where, then?
M: Well, the problem that GC has as a business is that there's only so
much arithmetic being done that they can replace. They've moved into
those markets pretty well -- computing odds for racetracks, scientific
and military engineering work, and accounting of all kinds. The next
step is to make the case to people that they need to be doing calculating
that they're not doing now. GC has a subisidary now called Integrated
Business Management. They come to a large firm and show them how they
can put all their accounts on one machine -- personnel, marketing, sales,
suppliers, and make connections between them. You can't just buy a GC-3
and start using it for something like that, unfortunately, because there
aren't yet enough people with the right experience. But IBM is training
more all the time, and there are now programs at Champlain University to
prepare students for this kind of work. It's having a big impact on our
economy in Northeast New York. You should get someone from GC on your
A: We may very well do that, but for tonight we're out of time. Paul Markey,
of Markey Research, thanks for joining us. Tomorrow night, New Granada.
Michael Murphy from the Liberal Party will join us to discuss the latest
developments there, and no doubt will tell us why they're the government's
fault. Good night.
 In general FAN contributors should be very hesitant to change
facts stated directly in Sobel, but after discussion we find
the state population figures insupportable and probably not well
considered. The "OTL" column in the table below is the approximate
1930 population of the OTL area corresponding to each CNA state.
Accepting Sobel's figure of 153.6 for the CNA, we have felt the
need to redistribute this somewhat, while maintaining the general
spirit of Sobel's CNA. For example, we have given Manitoba four
times its OTL population rather than eight. We also have given
the SC a _much_ greater population. The earlier deurbanization
in the CNA should _accelerate_ the movement of population to the
Sunbelt that is the major factor in OTL's figures. Sobel seems
to have not considered the tendency of a free people to move to
 This column is not from the _Herald Almanac_ and is only included for
the convenience of OTL readers.
 Each state gets five automatic seats in the Council -- the other
120 are divided according to population. As described in #25, each
state is divided into "ridings" of roughly equal population. Oddly,
the strict insistance on "one man, one vote" in the OTL USA does not
even extend to OTL Canada (it was a response to race-based unfair
voting practices in the South). In OTL Quebec, ridings for the
National Assembly (provincial parliament) differ in population by as
much as a factor of two. It seems to be an accepted principle that
MNA's from far-flung rural ridings should have fewer constituents...
This table gives the same overall 80-53-17 result as Sobel's, and
has about the same relative performance in each state.
 The PJP firmly believes that Liddy's CBI has been placing wireless
overhearing devices in its offices, as part of a general program of
surveillance of opponents of the government. As of 15 Jan 1973, a
month before the election, no impartial source has confirmed any of